#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

179    3    100  20     279
203    6    99    20    302
154    7    95    5    249
150    1A  94    2     244
142    2    92    3    234
121    9    92    5    213
186    8    90    15    276
133    4    89    12    222
1A    Hurricane Heat        8.40    4.80    2.70

This par was adjusted for the past week on 7f races. It seems to be about right.

This makes the Par a powerful guide since it can be adjusted as need be on a daily basis, so that you are constantly tuned to what is actually happening today.

When you get ratings for today, you also get the past week so that you can check the pars.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

226    2    98    20     324
154    4    97    0.8    251
193    5    96    8    289
146    6    95    12    241
150    1A    95    5     245
181    8    88    6    269
123    3    83    12    206
160    1    81    5    241
1A    Theartofcompromise     15.40    5.70    8.00

What could be better then to have the par verified so soon. I think it is good where it is.

You can also go by the composite figure on the right if you don't want to get bogged down in thinking about early speed.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

327    8    100  3.5     427
269    6    99    5    368
305    7    97    6     402
271    4    91    8    362
299    2    91    2.5    390
361    3    88    30    449
226    1    0    12     226
171    5    0    6    171
204    9    0    12    204
7    Sean Avery      14.00    7.50    5.20

The 6f par has been solid as a rock for 2 years at every track.

I'll usually choose par ES over a high ES from last. Therefor the #7 is preferred over the #8.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

132    5    93    20     225
33    9    90    2.5     123
98    7    90    15    188
95    1    87    6    182
101    4    87  10    188
102    8    86  3.5    188
108    6    83  10    191
104    3    81  4    185
151    2    0    8     151
9    Peace Wine    8.10     5.20    3.80

As you can see, closest to par wins frequently, I think I'll leave this one where it is for awhile.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

361    3    99    5     460
460    7    98    30   558
322    9    95    15    417
327    8    95    6    422
263    6    94    2.5 357
297    2    94    4    391
166    4    0    20     166
273    5    0    8    273
136    1    0    12    136
183    1A  0   12    183
380    10  0    6    380
9    Heavenly Blaze   51.50     19.40    7.20
8    Star of New York     10.60    5.10

$2 Exacta    $258.00         9-8

I love the consistency of the 6f par, notice that #9 is exactly on par with the composite figure of 417.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

78    11    89    20     167
48    8    86    15     134
77    1    85    8    162
83    4    83    2.5    166
93     2    83    8    86
88    3    81    5    169
89    6    80    3    169
78    5    80    12    158
77    7    80    6    157
86    9    79    50    165
8    Prince Dubai   57.50     26.00    9.60

Again, the rating is a strong indicator, and the par, very consistent.

The handicappers are pulling their hair out today.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

159  10    94    6     253
61      6    87     3    148
144    1    84    15    228
117    9    84    10    201
79      2    83    3.5     162
102    8    82    20    184
102    7    81    4    183
102    3    79    12    181
72      5    78    8     150
1    Ninth Client  18.80     7.40    5.60

One for the handicappers, but I'll stick with the par until they beat me a few more times.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

89    10   91   20     180
61    9    89    6    150
85    3    88    5    173
68    1    87    15     155
100   2    85    12     185
107   8    84    8    191
91    5    83    3    174
92    7    81    4    173
96    6    80    8    176
149   4    77    12    226
7    Expansion    14.00     5.50    3.80

I'll take this loss, because the winner is still in line with the par.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/CompG1

88    5    85    12     173
87    4    82    5    169
141    9    81    12    222
137    3    81    10    218
114    2    80    15    194
148    8    80    5     228
160    10    80    6    240
121    7    79    20    200
159    1    78    3    237
151    6    0    4.5     151
7    Telling    68.00     28.00    13.40

As is this winner also, these turf marathons are tough too.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

82      6    89     3    171
78      9    88    20     166
109    7    88    6    197
82      1    86    20     168
104    3    85    3.5     189
129    8    85    5     214
125    10    85    12    210
126    4    85    20    211
94    15    84    5    178
138    12    83    10    221
184    5    0    4     184
3    Cops Fever     8.40     4.50    2.90

With one third of the horses being over 100 "run" at 85 ES, I'll go to a 100/85 par here.

It works out well, so it will stay there to start tomorrow.

Gross $163.20

Bet     -  20.00

Net     $143.00

And that is how simple it is to win with Ability-X Ratings. Try 1 days card at Saratoga, you get the ratings for the past week to guide you, and as you can see, you will be steered to winners as you go.

Without being bogged down in the complexity of traditional past performance handicapping.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

335    3    101     8    436
309    5    95    8     404
343    8    95    4    438
319    4    94    8    413
313    1    93    5    406
291    2    93    3    384
322    7    89    3.5    411
286    1A    88    5    374
393    6    87    20    480
3    Gold for the Queen      20.80    9.70    7.20

Here, I'll take the high ES from last as this race is very competitive & #3 shouldn't need all of that ES to win.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

400    3    99    12     499
136    2    0    10     136
238    4    0    4    238
168    5    0    3.5    168
134    6    0    6    134
139    7    0    12    139
192    8    0    5    192

8    Touching Beauty   6.50     4.10    3.00

Not much to get a hold of here, #8 took some money, and the past week shows that many firsters win with ratings around 150.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

315    2    98    3     413
304    8    96    12    400
354    6    92    3.5    446
312    4    91    4.5    403
287    1    91    4     378
305    5    91    5     396
270    7    90    12    360
316    3    87    10    403
3    Mythical Pegasus      24.00    8.80    6.00

There haven't been a lot of races at this distance, but I set the par from those winners and take a shot.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp N70

309    6    99     6    408
276    3    99    12     375
278    2    98    4    376
243    5    96    5    339
226    4    95    2.5    321
306    1    95    2    401
4    Thunders Dove    4.40     2.80    2.50

There really isn't a par horse here, and #4 is quite a bit lower and that usually works out well, but speedy has already worked once.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

144    4    95    6     239
118    2    94    3    212
171    5    94    8    265
133    7    93    10    226
144    8    91    20    235
139    6    91    12     230
146    3    91    2.5     237
107    9    90    10    197
9    Starforaday    12.00     4.90    3.10

Since there are several right at par, I take the #6 which is just lower, but not low enough as is #9. I leave the par alone for one more.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

363    8    96    3     459
361    3    92    10    453
384    2    92    12    476
324    5    91    12     415
211    4    0    4     211
127    6    0    12    127
127    1A  0    8    127
136    9    0    2.5    136
8    One Note Samba    5.00     3.40    2.60

A tough race, but there is one for a bet. I'll leave the par alone here.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

119    5    94    5     213
115    6    92    6    207
84    4    89    5    173
140    1    0    3     140
148    3    0    12    148
180    2    0    3.5    180
144    7    0    15    144
146    8    0    4    146
122    9    0    15    122
191    10    0    6    191
8    Seattle Mission       16.40    7.80    5.30

This one is a pass with none really close to par.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

177    1    98     6    275
117    9    97    12     214
127    6    95    20    222
109    3    92    5    201
155    10  91    50    246
91      2    86    2.5     177
104    4    84    10    188
105    5    83    10    188
123    7    82    15    205
116    8    0    3     116
1    Whisked Away    22.80     7.90    5.80

Yesterday, there was a loss to a high rated speedy horse in an 8f turf race that should have been caught. It wasn't, so this par moves up, and the high ES of this #1 looks good.

This win will come in handy while we see what's next.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

324    3    99    4.5     423
259    9    93    10    352
259    5    93    20    352
310    1    90    12    400
239    10    89    20    328
243    2    89    6    332
236    4    88    5    324

9    Citifest    Morales   16.00    6.80    4.20

This one is a pick 'em race. Good spot to gather research for the next.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

83    6    87    12     170
77    2    85    3.5    162
49    1    84    5    133
91    9    84    6    175
76    3    83    20    159
84    8    83    12    167
89    5    82    8    171
109  10  82    20    191
116   7    81    2    197
97    4    79    20    176
7    Banrock    3.80     3.00    2.70

Another tough one, and the favorite seems likely. I'll move the 9fTurf par to 120 for the next one.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

337    2    98    10     435
391    9    95    2.5    486
299    3    94    4    393
350    5    94    8    444
317    7    94    4.5    411
318    6    93    15    411
353    4    93    10    446
302    1    92    20    394
340    8    90    5    430
306    10  88    50    394
3    Smart Trade        6.20    3.90    2.90

After adjusting the par, there is only one that is close, #3 takes some money. But, it is nice to start and end on a winner.

Gross $69.80

Bet     -  16.00

Net     $43.80

The pars from a last meeting at a particular track will be effective for starting a new meeting.

As a beginner becomes engaged in following winners pars, they will notice that the ratings reflect ability and will start to learn about horseracing as it is. This will bring them to understand the reality of the game, and that anyone can win.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

273    4    95     3    368
289    8    95    2    384
308    9    94    12    402
279    3    91    5    370
288    1    90    12    378
277    6    89    12    366
403    7    88    12    491
324    2    84    6    408
330    5    83    15    413
8    Another Success    5.70     3.90    2.40

#4 comes in third, so I'll move the par up for the next one.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

158    3    96    4     254
143    6    92    3.5    235
185    4    92    5    277
152    1    90    3     242
204    2    0    10     204
174    8    0    6    174
1    Successful Score      7.80    4.20    2.70

A proper name, since we decided to stay with this par for one more.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

513    1    101    8     614
233    4    95    1.2    328
228    5    94    3.5    322
246    2    94    4    340
252    6    91    10    343
4    Gayego    3.50     2.40    2.10

One to watch, I'll assume this is a very good field and leave this par alone.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp N70

439    3    105  20     544
384    7    93    3.5    477
367    5    92    12    459
325    4    91    2     416
390    1    89    20    479
126    2    0    12     126
161    6    0    6    161
134    9    0    8    134
5    Sky Fever   29.60     10.60    5.90

There have been few 6.5f races at SAR, but I think I will adjust this par up to 360/94 in honor of this loss.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

339    8    100    8     439
294    5    98    6    392
271    10  95   3.5     366
342    3    94    15    436
307    2    93    20    400
278    9    91    5    369
273    1    91    10    364
319    4    90    30    409
330    7    89    6    419
259    6    89    3    348
10    Close to the Vest     6.00    3.70    2.80

#10 is closest to the new par, and gives another win.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

94      8     93    3    187
148    4    92    20    240
83      1    90     12    173
180    3    89    50    269
83      7    88    5     171
51      5    87     3.5    138
100    2    86    20    186
100    6    86    8    186
15    10    83    5     98
110    9    80    5    190
10    Staten Island Gal   13.80     6.20    4.70

$2 Superfecta    $2,905.00         10-5-8-1

#10 brings in a price as the lowest rating, and the superfecta shows the power of the par range for 8.5fTurf.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

262    4    99    3     361
184    1    94    12    278
157    6    94    3.5    251
158    9    93    8    251
168    10  92    10    260
176    8    92    5    268
161    2    90    4.5    251
202    3    89    4    291
10    Top Lass    30.80     12.60    6.10

I didn't like any of these for a match, I prefer to stay around the par of 90 ES at 7f. I will move the "run" par to 170 in honor of this winner though.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

289    4    100    6     389
252    5    97    4    349
255    2    96    15    351
233    1    94    3     327
235    8    94    10    329
230    3    92    12    322
225    9    90    8    315
232    10    89    15    321
236    6    86    10    322
1    Awakino Cat    7.10     4.20    3.00

This is the feature race and they are all under par, it is safe to take the lowest rating at par ES of 94.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

138    8    89    30     227
109    5    89    6    198
126    11    86    8    212
108    1    86    15    194
133    9    84    30    217
107    6    84    3.5    191
107    3    84    3    191
147    7    83    8    230
155    10    83    15    238
134    4    82    2.5    216
3    Try Your Best (TUR)       5.70    3.70    2.90

The par for 8.5fTurf goes back and forth depending on the horses, and there are too many par runners here to single one.

When the race is very contentious you can pass, and gain some insight from the result.

Gross $34.70

Bet     -  12.00

Net     $22.70

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

141    2X    95    5     236
144    3    95    6    239
139    6    92    12     231
188    8    90    8     278
146    10   88   2.5     234
109    1A    84    8    193
167    9    82    3    249
6    Afleet Alexandra     16.00    8.30    4.70
10    Sneaky Girl       5.80     3.50
9    R Vicarious Girl     3.10

The 7f distance can be a pain, as a matter of fact, I think we've seen all of these ratings win at this distance, so a win bet here could be tough. Let's pass that, and reset the par to the winner for the next one.

Of course, boxing an exacta and/or trifecta with these solid contenders might be a simple alternative too.

$2 Trifecta  $470.00
$2 Exacta    $99.00

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

389    8    98    10     487
290    3    98    5    388
291    1    97    4     388
293    4    93    3.5     386
344    2    93    6    437
308    5    91    30    399
358    6    84    2.5    442
6    Speechifying   6.90     4.10    3.10

#1 would seem to be the best choice according to the ratings, but we can also see that to bet any of three could be hairsplitting. A pass may be the best choice.

The results bear that out as the #6 wins on the basis of a shaky DQ.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

134    1A  96    2     230
143    1    94    2    237
114    3    94    3     208
171    2B  93    4    264
174    4    91    20   265
173    6    91    5    264
151    7    88    5    239
114    2    87    4     201
3    Rodman   6.50     3.00    2.50

If you want to, you can pick between the fast low rating, and the slow one. The slow one was third, a good testament to the rating.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp N70

330    4    100     2    430
341    1    99    3     440
369    2    99    3.5    468
365    3    98    2.5    463
201    5    87    12    288
2    Tidal Pool   23.00     7.10    3.80

Sometimes I get caught being lazy and missing great winners making basic mistakes. I'm going to adjust these to the Par Early Speed so that you can easily spot my dumb mistake.

270    4    97    2     430
301    1    97    3    440
329    2    97    3.5     468
345    3    97    2.5     463
401    5    97    12    288
2    Tidal Pool   23.00     7.10    3.80

Here the best "run" was obscured by high ES. Luckily, every race can be an opportunity when you understand this.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

378    9    101    8     479
257    1    100    3    357
297    7    99    12    396
282    8    96    8    378
274    2    94    15     368
285    5    93    5     378
261    6    93    4    354
276    4    93    3.5    369
398    3    92    15    490
9    Starfish Bay  13.20     6.70    4.10

If we put the #9 on the same ES level with #2, then #9 would be 238/94, which would explain another missed win. But, we are trying to keep it simple.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

109    1    96     15    205
81    9    91    12     172
99    8    88    12    187
89    7    87    15    176
139    4    84    15    223
89    6    84    3     173
90    3    82    5    172
95    5    80    3.5    175
263    2    0     6    263
160    10    0    6    160
3    Miss World  15.20     8.40    5.60

When the choice is tough, often the best choice is to pass on a win bet.

It can be a good spot for some Exacta Magic.

$2 Exacta    $132.50       3-1

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

194    3    97    15     291
179    13  96    3.5    275
196    5    92    4    288
84      4    91     2.5    175
95      1    91    3     186
138    9    89    10    227
144    1A    0    3     144
136    2    0    15    136
166    6    0    4    166
143    7    0    12    143
137    8    0    12    137
8    House of Grace  48.40     19.00    9.00

This loss is easy to take with 5 firsters in the race.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

324    5    99    15     423
305    2    95    6    400
313    3    92    3     405
322    8    90    12     412
325    4    89    12    414
348    9    89    3.5    437
344    1    89    8       433
3    Aunt Mabel   6.90     3.90    3.20

#3 is closest to par considering early speed. Adjustment to par would give 353/94.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

307    1    103    3.5    410
348    4    101    4.5   449
326    10    96    15    422
270    6    96    5    366
331    8    96    20    427
296    2    95    20    391
271    9    95    8    366
304    5    93    12    397
306    3    92    12     398
3    Worstcasescenario      29.80    12.60    8.50

Sometimes making a mistake early just helps to avoid them late, let me adjust these to Par ES to see how they look then.

127    1    103    3.5    410
228    4    101    4.5   449
286    10    96    15    422
230    6    96    5    366
291    8    96    20    427
276    2    95    20    391
251    9    95    8    366
324    5    93    12    397
346    3    92    12     398

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

60      1     92    5    152
150    3    89    20     239
123    4    86    3.5    209
105    7    86    2     191
135    10    85    12     220
122    8    85    15    207
89      2    84     4    173
132    5    82    12    214
121    9    81    15     202
155    6    77    50     232
2    Mr. Hooker   16.20     7.80    4.80

There has been some rain, and the turf isn't quite as hard as it was. I'll return to the middle of the road par for this one considering those average conditions.

The results are pretty normal too, so I'll stay with normal till another change seems in order. A look at the superfecta shows how normal this result is.

$2 Superfecta    $4,074.00         2-9-1-7

Gross $52.90

Bet     -  12.00

Net     $40.90

As you can see, you can employ some sophistication with Ability-X ratings. It is not always needed, but it is always helpful.

A rating that you can learn from while you are winning with it is a very powerful rating to have. Get yours today.