If you bear in mind the the rating number, first column on left, always represents the horses run it becomes the easiest way to learn how horses actually run in a race. The "run" number, and the early speed number, considered together and seperately always reveal the horses ability. This is the only thing you need in order to win on purpose at the track.

It is a completely different perspective, but it is the one that you need to win, and it is not the one that the rest of the public have. They have past performance lines that better hide ability then reveal it.

8th - 8.5fD Par 100/90 G1 - The header gives you the distance, and a winners par rating/ES

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

111  13    97    10     208
80    11    96    20    176
56    6      95     15    151 - #6 is the fastest ES, and the overall best/lowest rating
84    4      95     15    179
74    2       95    4      169
61    8      94    5      155 - #8 is 60 pts faster in ES, yet 14 pts lower in run then #12, with more in the stretch then #7
53    9      92    15     145
75    12    91    12    166 - #12 promises more run in the stretch at the same early speed.
39       7    91     6     130 - the "key" is always the lowest rating on the bottom (slow) half.
79      1    91    5      170
103    3    90    20     193
90     10    90    15     180
71      5     88    20     159
103    14    82    8      185

The "key" is often one of the top 4 ML horses, and its rating usually turns out to be pretty good in comparison to the other horses. The lower rating is generally better, and #7, at 39, is the lowest rating we have. But, before a bet can be made, we should think about what the rating tells us about the way this horse runs, the number always reflects the horses run.

We see that "Par" is 100 and that is more then twice what #7 shows at 39. While the Early Speed of 91 is just a liitle higher then Par, which is 90. The "run par" of 100 represents a good full run at this distance, actually 100/90 is as perfect a balance as you can get for run in the first half and run in the second half of the race.

#3, and #14 are well balanced "par" runners here, but with a purse of $500,000, there are many horses in this race that are much faster early, and can probably outrun that balance. #7 is one of that group, so we should compare from #7 up so that we can get an idea of what the faster horses might do. As it stands for #7, the ES of 91 is pretty good, but par tells us that the 39 run, might be a little light in the stretch. But, as the "key", #7 becomes the benchmark for comparison since with ES at 91, it is just above par on that, and the best rating of the three horses at that level of speed from their last race. Between #1 and #12, #12 is lower, but offers more run in the stretch then #7. Now we can compare with run of 39, and 75, as we move up to consider faster early.

#8 is the third contender, because it has more early speed while its run rating is only 22 pts higher then #7. #8 promises to be further ahead with some run in the stretch more then #7, and the other horses between it and #7. Then #6 figures to outrun everybody on the front end or the back end since it is the fastest with the lowest rating of 56.

If #6 doesn't need to run as fast as it can early, it will be better able to run late. Because of the relationship between early and late run, #6 is the only horse here that can slow down to 93 early or speed up to 97 early, and have the ability to run 96 late. Par of 100/90 is great balance, #6 has the ability to run with that balance. If #6 runs with all of it's speed early, it still has more run then #7, not as much as #12, but #12 doesn't figure to have more speed to put in up front. #6 has the most latitude in how it can run the race for a win.

Handicappers call it tactical speed, I call it speed that the horse can use anywhere it needs to in order to win. It is the edge you need as a bettor, and it is very hard to see in the format of past performances. But, it sticks right out with Ability-X ratings when you know what you need to have a winning advantage.

With an ML of 15-1, it is plain to see that this advantage doesn't show up in "form".

6    Noble's Promise       27.80    13.20     8.20
8    Aikenite                      7.00    5.20
12    Roman Invasion       14.80  / 7 - Make Music for Me /  Superfecta    $1,274.66     6-8-12-7

Horsemen have had over 100 years practice at hiding ability in the format of past performances, and they are pretty good at it. As this, and many other races demonstrate. The other thing that is clearly demonstrated is that past performance handicapping does not work to give you a clear picture of the race. You need to look at the race from the perspective of ability.

You will miss things as you learn to analyze the rartings, but the results will point out what you missed until you don't miss it anymore. It is easy to learn the consistencies, because they will keep happening until you do learn them.